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Sample size calculation for an MD / MS thesis, explained without fear


The four formulas most postgraduate theses need, with worked examples and the values you are expected to justify.

  • Entry no. 03 of 18
  • Published
  • 8 min read

The guide

Sample size is the first question in most thesis vivas. You do not need to be a statistician; you need to know which of four situations you are in and where your assumed values came from.

Estimating a prevalence

n = Z²·p·(1−p)/d². With 95% confidence (Z = 1.96), an expected prevalence of 30% and absolute precision of 5%, n = 323. Cite the study your 30% came from.

Comparing two means

n per group = 2·(Zα + Zβ)²·σ²/Δ². Use a previous study for the standard deviation and a clinically meaningful difference for Δ, not the largest difference you can find.

Comparing two proportions

n per group = (Zα + Zβ)²·[p1(1−p1) + p2(1−p2)]/(p1 − p2)². State power (usually 80%) and alpha (5%) explicitly.

Diagnostic accuracy

Use the expected sensitivity (or specificity), the disease prevalence in your setting and the desired precision. Buderer's formula is the one usually cited for this design.

  • Always add 10% for attrition in prospective studies
  • Write the formula, the values, the source and the final number in the synopsis
  • If the department's patient load cannot reach the number, change the design or the duration, not the precision

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Document: Guide no. 03 — Sample size calculation for an MD / MS thesis, explained without fear · Revision 1 · Last reviewed

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